Wednesday, 17 Apr 2024

Is it realistic to win the Oscar Grind strategy?

Seasoned players claim that this technique works only in the short term, provided that the player is lucky. The constant application of the Oscar Grind method will lead to the gradual burnout of the bank.

This is explained by ordinary statistics. To make a profit using this strategy of winning at sports bets, you need to guess the correct result in at least half of the cases. The fact that the bookmaker has set the odds equal to 2 indicates a lower probability.

“Kelly Criterion”

The Kelly Criterion is a 더킹카지노 progressive financial strategy that combines elements of the game and the financial market. The main goal is to determine the size of the bet. There is a special formula for this.

Kelly criterion calculation rules

The formula for calculating the Kelly criterion:

  • S = (P * K-1) / (K-1), in which:
  • S is the required Kelly criterion
  • P is the player’s score
  • K – the official forecast of the bookmaker

The coefficient is expressed as a percentage

Let’s look at an example. You are interested in a hockey match in which bookmakers bet 1.8 on one team and 2.2 on the other. As a percentage, this means that the first team will win with a 55% probability, and the second only 45%. Suppose you disagree with the forecast and think that the second team has a better chance of winning and assume its real quote is 1.5 (65%).

If the guess is correct and the bookmaker was wrong, then we can talk about a bet with a profitable quote. Substitute the values ​​into the equation and get:

Kelly criterion – (0.65 * 1.8-1) / (1.8-1) = 0.21 = 21%. This means that you need to bet 21 percent of the pot to win. In this case, the player’s finances will run out quickly, so it is recommended to divide the resulting percentage several times until the value decreases to at least 5% of the total.

Is it realistic to make money on the Kelly criteria

In order for the strategy to give real results and make a profit, it is necessary to be well versed in the chosen sport, to be able to correctly assess the upcoming sporting events. The Kelly Criterion will not be beneficial to novice bettors without experience.

Outsider betting strategy in soccer (soccer betting strategy against favorite)

  • Beginners prefer to bet on the favorites in football matches as the probability of winning is higher. Many experienced bettors choose the strategy against the favorite due to the higher odds.
  • In matches where one opponent is noticeably stronger than the other, bookmakers deliberately lower the odds for the leaders and raise them for the outsiders.

Newcomers do not understand that the odds for the leaders are understated. This leads to an abundance of bets on them. Bookmakers have to further reduce the odds for the favorite and increase for the underdogs.