Tuesday, 27 Oct 2020

Finer values for the best Bets for You

The bookmaker expresses its opinion on the event with the odds. Read here how bookmakers form quotes. Ideally, a ratio of 2.0 is 50%, 1.5 is 66%, and so on. However, this does not mean that the outcome with odds of 2.0 (50%) will win every other time. To understand why, let’s go back to variance.

Short distance 메이저 사이트 bets with odds 2.0 can either play 10 times in a row or lose the same number of times. When beginners are lucky and they win 7-8 out of 10 bets, they think that this is easy money, but the situation changes with subsequent transactions. Let’s remember the coin example.

The Right Solutions

It is widely believed among 은꼴 beginners that after a failure, the chances of success for the next bet increase. This is not true. In reality, the likelihood of a positive outcome does not depend on the previous outcome. If “heads” fell 10 times in a row, this does not mean that “tails” have more chances of falling out for the 11th time. The probability remains the same – 50%. Remember, each bet is a new risk.

Distance earning is important

Now it is obvious that it is possible to speak about the profitability of forecasts only in the long run. And 100 bets is not a sufficient interval, since with such a number of transactions, the variance is still large. Roughly speaking, even a person far from sports and betting is able to guess 60 results of matches out of 100 with a coefficient of about two. But this does not mean that this person is a professional capper or a “plus” player. In the long run, variance will flatten the results and give no chance of a random profit.

  • Decent distance depends on the odds. The higher the quotes, the greater the variance, which means that you need the longest possible distance. If the bettor bets on odds of 1.9-2.1, then at least 1000 trades are required to assess real abilities. A shorter distance will not reflect the real capabilities of the capper, because due to the pronounced variance, the random factor is large.

There are a lot of forecasters on the network showing statistics of 50-100 transactions, even if it’s 82 + 3 = 15-, do not prove anything. And the flip side of the coin: if a capper made 5-6 misfires in a row, or even more, this does not mean that he is a fraud or a mediocrity. Evaluate your effectiveness at a distance. Newbies do not know this, so crooks take advantage of this and profit from gullible gamblers by selling pseudo predictions that will not bring profit.

Bookmaker’s margin is the bettor’s enemy

The bookmaker earns thanks to the margin. To understand what it is, let’s go back to the coin toss. The probability of each side falling out is 50%, which means that the coefficient should be 2.0. But if the first player bets 100 rubles on the heads, and the second the same amount on tails, then someone will win 100% of them, but the office will not earn anything, because it will simply give the money of one client to another (the win of one player – 200 rubles). Therefore, in such a situation, the coefficient will not be 2.0, but for example 1.9 (depending on the bookmaker’s margin).